Warsh Hiked 25 at 5% Yields. Bitcoin Held the Shelf.

BTCUSD 4H, Bitstamp. SMA(50) at $77,263. Last $76,536. Shelf held. Average still overhead. Chart: BitBrainers via TradingView.

By BitBrainers Editorial

The Fed raised the funds rate 25 basis points yesterday, 12–0, to 3.75%–4.00%. First hike since July 2023. First rate change of the Warsh chairmanship. Going in, the move was in the high 80s earlier in the week and above 90% by the statement. The tape treated it that way. Bitcoin ran $75,000 to $76,500 around the 2:00 p.m. ET statement and finished the session almost unchanged.

The 4-hour chart is the read. Price is $76,536 this morning, still under the 50-period SMA at $77,263, and still well off the September 4 high near $82,000. The dip into the $74,900–$75,100 area got bought. The retest got bought. That is the shelf from yesterday's note holding. It is not a trend reclaim.

What printed

The statement was short. Economic activity expanding at a solid pace. Inflation remains elevated. The hike “will support a timelier return” to 2%. “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

July was a 9–3 hold, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan already wanting a hike. Those three just became the room.

Warsh kept the press conference to about 30 minutes. He said the economy has strengthened. Then: “Inflation is the problem.”

“Inflation is too high and has been for too long.”

He called the move a removal of accommodation and refused to script the next three meetings. He also skipped the dot plot. Eighteen forecasts, not nineteen.

Sixteen dots

Sixteen of eighteen participants see at least one more hike in 2026. Twelve see one. Four see two. Two think Wednesday was the last one. Median funds rate sits at 4.1% for year-end 2026 and 2027. Headline PCE at 3.7%, core at 3.4%. The SEP still does not get inflation back to 2% until 2029.

Warsh on the SEP: “Those aren't my forecasts.” Markets now have to trade a hawkish median against a chair who will not put his name on it and does not like the guidance business.

October 27–28 is the next meeting. Statement only. No new dots. December 8–9 is when the projections come back.

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Yields, flows, the other building

The 10-year did not break. It sat on 5% the whole session, roughly 4.97% to 5.02%. That rate has been competing with Bitcoin for weeks. It still is.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $450.4 million on Tuesday, Farside's settled print, with FBTC and IBIT doing most of the damage. That wiped Monday's $159.9 million re-entry in a single session. Wednesday settled worse: $295.9 million out on FOMC day itself, led by IBIT at $144.1 million and ARKB at $84.4 million. Two sessions through the Fed window, $746.3 million gone.

Price holding $75,000 while the funds keep redeeming is not the same thing as demand. One is the chart. The other is who had to sell coin.

On the Hill, the Senate's CLARITY cloture fail is still the regulatory event that mattered. The leftover vote was House Ways and Means advancing the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, 38–5, the same afternoon as the FOMC. A tax markup is not market structure. It also has no floor behind it. Johnson sent the House home Wednesday night. The late-September weeks through October 1 were already canceled. Next sitting is after the midterms.

The level that matters now

Not $80,000. Watch a daily close under $75,000.

Yesterday's note	After the decision
BTC $75,489	$76,339
Low that got bought $74,900–$75,600	$74,900–$75,100, twice
Near-term shelf $75,500–$76,000	Held
4H 50-SMA —	$77,260, still above price
10-year 5.00%	4.97%–5.02%
Policy: hike odds in the 80s	3.75%–4.00%, 12–0
Next live question: path after the hike	16 of 18 still see another

Every push back into $77,260 this week has failed. Until that average gives way, the green candles are bounces inside the range.

Scoreboard after the first Warsh hike: shelf held, dots turned, yields pinned, ETFs bled $746M in two days. 16 of 18.

Sources:
Federal Reserve | FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
Federal Reserve | Summary of Economic Projections, Sept. 16, 2026
Federal Reserve | Warsh press conference, Sept. 16, 2026
Farside Investors | ETF flows, Sept. 15–16 settled BitBrainers | “The Fed Meets at 5% Yields and $75K Bitcoin,” Sept. 16, 2026

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