By BitBrainers Editorial
Why This CPI Print Is Different
June CPI came in at 3.5% year-on-year. The month-on-month reading fell 0.4%, mostly because energy prices dropped 5.7% in June. That tailwind is gone.
The Iran conflict pushed oil back up through July, and markets are expecting the month-on-month reading to turn positive again. Consensus sits around 3.5% year-on-year for headline, with core near 2.6%. The issue is not the number itself. It is the direction.
A positive month-on-month print, even a small one, shifts the narrative from cooling to reaccelerating. The Fed is watching that, not the headline. After July's jobs report missed badly, September hike odds fell. CME FedWatch now prices a hold at 60% and a hike at 40%. Wednesday resets that in one direction or the other.
CME Futures Positioning Flipped
Hedge funds have moved to net long on CME Bitcoin futures, according to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. That is a structural shift. These are positions built over weeks, not sentiment readings that reverse overnight. One CPI print does not unwind that positioning. What it does is delay or accelerate the next move.
Leveraged funds also cut their net short Yen positions by 74,000 contracts in five weeks, per CFTC data reported by The Kobeissi Letter. The Kobeissi Letter described it as one of the sharpest reductions in short positioning since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The last time Yen carry dynamics unwound at scale, August 2024, BTC dropped to $49,000 in days. The current unwind is slower. That is not the same as safe.
Jackson Hole Is the Next Real Signal
The September 16 FOMC is not the only event shaping the rate path. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on August 27-29. The symposium theme this year is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." That theme is unusually relevant to crypto under a new Chair.
His speech will be the final pricing input before the September decision. Between now and then: July CPI on August 12, July PPI on August 13, and July PCE on August 26. Three inflation prints in 14 days, then Warsh.
Key Levels This Week
BTC at $65,212 entering August 10. Resistance at $65,800. Support at $62,000, then $58,000 as the macro floor.
10-year Treasury yield near 4.70%. A move above 4.80% post-CPI tightens financial conditions further. Fed September hike odds: 40% as of today.
For the macro setup behind the liquidity picture: Bitcoin Follows M2 With a Lag Nobody Talks About
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wed Aug 12 | July CPI, 8:30 AM ET | Consensus 3.5% YoY. Month-on-month turning positive reaccelerates the hike narrative. |
| Thu Aug 13 | July PPI | Leading indicator for CPI. Shows how inflation moves through the supply chain before it hits consumers. |
| Mon Aug 26 | July PCE | Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE above 3% strengthens the September hike case. |
| Aug 27-29 | Jackson Hole Symposium | Warsh speaks. Final pricing input before the September 16 FOMC. |
| Sep 16 | FOMC Decision | Hold at 60%, hike at 40% as of today. Every print between now and then moves that needle. |
For last week's setup: Weekly Brief: July Closed Green. August Has a Record to Defend
Monday Morning. Every Week.
The macro data and Bitcoin levels that matter this week, before the week starts.
SubscribeSources
CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, week ending August 4, 2026
The Kobeissi Letter Hedge Funds Cut Short Yen Positions By Half
CME Group FedWatch Tool, September FOMC Probabilities
US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Release Schedule, July 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2026
CNBC Odds of Fed Rate Hike Tumble Following July Jobs Miss
Tools We Use
Kraken: Spot and futures on BTC, ETH, and 200+ assets.
Trezor: Cold storage. No internet connection required.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.
