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Saturday, July 11, 2026

307 Days on One Shelf. Bitcoin Keeps Coming Back to the Same $10,000 Band.

BitBrainers - 307 Days on One Shelf. Bitcoin Keeps Coming Back to the Same $10,000 Band.

By BitBrainers Editorial

Bitcoin has now spent a cumulative 307 days inside the $60,000 to $70,000 band, per Glassnode, making it the third most traded $10,000 range in the asset's history. That count includes most of 2024, when price lived here for months before the run to $126K, plus the current stretch that began this winter. The only two longer ones were the 2018 bear market between $10,000 and $20,000, and the 2022 bear market between $20,000 and $30,000. The company this range keeps tells you what kind of market this is.

Ranges This Long Only Form in One Kind of Market

Both bands ahead of it on the list were bear market bottoms: 2018's $10-20K and 2022's $20-30K. Heavily traded ranges form where sellers have exhausted their urgency but buyers see no reason to chase, and the two sides grind against each other for months at a time.

That grind leaves a mark on the chain. Glassnode's cost-basis data shows roughly 6% of the entire circulating supply last changed hands between $58,000 and $64,000, the largest cluster of cost-basis levels in Bitcoin's history. Six percent of all Bitcoin now has its break-even point directly underneath the current price.

That cluster cuts both ways. It acts as support while holders defend their entry, and it becomes a wall of sellers eager to exit at break-even if price dips below it and later recovers. Worth saying plainly: the cluster's existence is also the bull case in miniature. Six percent of supply changing hands here means someone spent ten months buying everything that was sold, and that absorption is demand, not just risk.

BTCUSD weekly chart with the 60-70K band and 58K cost-basis floor marked

The Line Running Through the Middle

The 200-week moving average sits near $62,873, almost exactly mid-range. Every major Bitcoin bear market has eventually found its floor around this line, and the few times price broke below it, the stay was brief.

So the range isn't random. Price keeps returning to and oscillating around the single most historically reliable long-term support in the asset's history, while half the market calls it a crash and the other half calls it a bottom.

Why This Range Isn't Quite Like the Other Two

There's a structural difference the record-chasing coverage skips. The 2018 and 2022 consolidations both formed after drawdowns of roughly 80% from the prior peak, at levels where nearly everyone who wanted out was already gone.

This range sits only about 50% below the October 2025 high of $126,198. The 2018 and 2022 ranges were exhaustion. This one is happening with far more of the market still holding positions from higher prices, which means far more potential supply overhead if price starts moving up.

CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju put a related number on it this week: in 2011, $2.7 billion of inflows moved Bitcoin over 55,000%. Each cycle since has needed vastly more money for smaller gains. A $1.28 trillion asset doesn't get pushed out of a range by enthusiasm. It gets pushed out by flows, which is why the ETF numbers matter more than the pattern.

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What the Market Is Actually Pricing

Prediction markets put numbers on the boredom. Polymarket traders give an 83% chance Bitcoin touches $65,000 at some point in July, but only 27% for $70,000, and a 46% chance of sliding back to $60,000 first.

Translated: the market expects the range to hold. High odds of tagging the nearby level, low odds of actually escaping the band, and nearly a coin flip on revisiting the bottom of it. The Fear & Greed index at 27 says sentiment agrees.

ETF flows tell the same undecided story. Thursday's $221.7 million inflow snapped a ten-day outflow streak, then Friday's $95 million outflow snapped the snap. Institutional money is doing exactly what price is doing: nothing, loudly.

The Part the Record Doesn't Tell You

Here is the honest limit of this statistic. The two longer consolidations resolved upward into new bull markets, which makes the pattern tempting to extrapolate. But two prior cases is not a base rate, it's a pair of anecdotes.

One honest note on the statistic itself: most coverage is reporting the 307 days as one continuous trap, and a glance at a weekly chart shows that's wrong, since price was above $100K as recently as November. It's cumulative time across visits. We made the broader argument about patterns and their marketing yesterday in Three Models Walk Into 2026, and it applies to this range too. History says long ranges near the 200-week average have resolved up. History also had a sample size that fits on one hand.

What has a mechanism rather than a pattern is liquidity. Our M2 deviation indicator flipped positive in June and has held there since, meaning global money supply is running ahead of Bitcoin's price while the range grinds on. If that deviation persists and the range still refuses to break upward by autumn, that tells you something real about how much the liquidity relationship has weakened.


The Levels That End This

Ranges this heavily traded don't resolve quietly. Below, the cost-basis cluster starts at $58,000, and losing it puts 6% of supply underwater at once. Above, $67,250 is the June high inside the band, and $70,000 is the ceiling that has held for ten months.

Until one of those gives way, every rally is a trade inside a box, and every dip is too. The cumulative count keeps climbing every week price stays here, and at this pace the band takes the number two spot from 2022 before the year is out. Whether that ends up being a bottom statistic or just a long pause depends entirely on which wall breaks first.

Sources:
CoinDesk: Bitcoin's $60,000-$70,000 range becomes third most traded range in history
TipRanks: Bitcoin's Price Is Trapped Right Now as One of History's Longest 307-Day Slumps Continues
Benzinga (via Yahoo Finance): Bitcoin Has Not Left the $60,000-$70,000 Range in 307 Days: What Is Happening?

This is market commentary, not financial advice. BitBrainers holds Bitcoin and other digital assets. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.

Friday, July 10, 2026

Three Models Walk Into 2026. None of Them Survive Contact.

BitBrainers - Three Models Walk Into 2026. None of Them Survive Contact.

By BitBrainers Editorial

Right now, three popular frameworks are all looking at the same Bitcoin price near $64,500 and reaching three different verdicts. One says it's historically cheap. One says this whole year is a write-off. One says liquidity has already turned and price just hasn't noticed. They cannot all be load-bearing at the same time, and this year has been quietly stress-testing all three.

Verdict One: You Are in the Frozen Zone

The quantile model fits Bitcoin's entire price history into percentile bands along a logarithmic growth curve. On that curve, the low $60,000s sit near the 1st percentile, deep in the band the model labels "frozen." Historically, time spent down there marked accumulation phases: late 2015, the 2018 winter, the 2022 lows. The model's current readout puts fair value bands at $122K for the 33rd percentile and $354K for the 99th.

Its weakness is the thing that makes it look precise. The bands are a curve fitted to one asset's past, and this family of models has a habit of being quietly redrawn each time price escapes it. The original rainbow chart was recalibrated after 2021. Stock-to-flow was abandoned by most of its followers after 2022. A "risk score of 1%" means price is at an extreme of its own fitted history. It says nothing about the probability of going lower.

Verdict Two: This Year Was Cancelled in Advance

The four-year cycle template stacks Bitcoin's history into repeating columns: bear year, pre-bull year, two bull years. In that grid, 2026 lands in the red column with 2014, 2018 and 2022, and 2027 is scheduled as the recovery. Some versions of this chart go further and draw the 2026 candles as already falling, pasting the template forward in the same visual style as real data. A prediction, dressed as a pattern.

The sample size is three completed cycles. Three. Any pattern that has occurred three times can be a mechanism or a coincidence, and the only way to tell is to ask what drove it. The historical driver was a halving supply shock hitting a market dominated by retail flow. That is precisely the structure that has been dismantled over the past two years.

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Verdict Three: Liquidity Already Turned

The third framework isn't a price pattern at all. Global M2 money supply, normalized against Bitcoin and lagged, has led major price moves with a delay that nobody agrees on but most estimates put between 70 and 110 days. On our chart, the M2 deviation flipped positive in June and has held there for six weeks: normalized M2 at 1.12 against normalized BTC at 1.02. Liquidity is running ahead of price.

We covered the mechanism and its unreliable lag in detail in Bitcoin Follows M2 With a Lag. Nobody Agrees on How Long. The short version: this one at least has a causal story. More dollars in the system eventually chase scarce assets. That is an economic mechanism, not a calendar superstition. It can still fail, but it fails for reasons you can examine, not because a four-year clock struck the wrong hour.

What 2026 Did to All Three

The year opened near $93,000. Under the cycle template, that number should not exist, a bear year is supposed to grind lower from the start, not open near highs. Then the Fed held, ETFs bled a record $4.5 billion in June, and price broke to a 21-month low near $58,200. Now the quantile model calls this level frozen and historically cheap, while the same June that crushed price is when the M2 deviation turned positive.

So the scorecard reads: the cycle template was wrong about January, the quantile model has been "cheap" since the mid $70,000s and bleeding the whole way down, and the liquidity signal is currently making a claim that won't be testable until autumn. Anyone telling you one of these frameworks called this year is grading on a curve.

The Participants Left, Not the Pattern

Here is the structural point underneath the chart drama. The cycle pattern was built on a specific market: halvings cutting new supply while demand came mostly from individuals reacting to price itself. That reflexive loop produced the boom-bust rhythm the templates memorized.

Today's marginal flow looks nothing like that. Spot ETFs move billions on allocation decisions made quarterly by committees. Corporate treasuries buy and sell against dividend schedules and debt covenants, as Strategy's new monetization framework just demonstrated. Miners increasingly earn from AI compute contracts that don't care what block rewards do. None of these participants know or care what year of the "cycle" it is. The pattern didn't break so much as its cast quit the show.


How to Actually Use This

A model earns attention in proportion to its mechanism, not its track record on three data points. The quantile bands are a useful way to see where price sits relative to its own history, nothing more. The four-year calendar deserves retirement honors and a quiet exit. The liquidity framework is the only one of the three making a falsifiable claim right now: if the positive M2 deviation persists and price hasn't followed within roughly a quarter, that model takes real damage too.

Our position hasn't changed since the M2 post. Watch the mechanism, hold it to a deadline, and treat every chart that fits the past perfectly as a description wearing a prediction costume. Three cycles is not a sample. It's an anecdote with better graphics.

This is market commentary, not financial advice. BitBrainers holds Bitcoin and other digital assets. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.

When a Company "HODLs," Someone Else Decided That For Them

BitBrainers - When a Company 'HODLs,' Someone Else Decided That For Them

By BitBrainers Editorial

A person holding Bitcoin in self-custody answers to nobody about when to sell. A public company holding Bitcoin answers to a board, a dividend schedule, and an accounting standard. Strategy just gave the market a live look at the difference.

The Board Gave Itself Permission

On June 29, 2026, Strategy's board approved something it had never issued in nearly six years of buying Bitcoin: a standing authorization to sell it. The Digital Credit Capital Framework permits up to $1.25 billion in BTC sales, described as a monetization program rather than a liquidation, a permanent option on the table rather than an order.

The company still holds 843,775 BTC, the largest corporate Bitcoin position in the world, acquired at an average cost near $75,476 per coin. With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000s, that position carries an unrealized loss of roughly $11 billion on paper.

The Bill That Doesn't Care What Bitcoin Does

The reason a "never sell" company built itself a selling mechanism has nothing to do with conviction. It has to do with STRC, Strategy's preferred stock, which now pays a 12% annual dividend as of July 1. That is a contractual cash obligation, and preferred shareholders don't care whether BTC is at 60K or 90K when the payment comes due.

Strategy's $2.55 billion USD reserve covers roughly 17 months of those obligations at current terms. When that runway shortens, or when raising fresh capital through stock or preferred issuance gets more expensive, the $1.25 billion authorization is the backstop. The market has also gotten less willing to pay a premium for MSTR relative to the Bitcoin it holds. That premium, the mNAV, has compressed from as high as 1.80x over the past year to around 1.11x now.

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It's Already Happening, Just Not Through the Front Door

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, about $216 million, between June 29 and July 5 to help fund that dividend payment. Per the company's own July 6 filing, that sale did not count against the $1.25 billion program at all.

VanEck's Matthew Sigel flagged the reason. The monetization program only caps sales used to rebuild the USD cash reserve specifically. Direct dividend-funding sales sit outside that number entirely. Strategy has more room to sell Bitcoin than the headline $1.25 billion figure suggests, and most of the market coverage hasn't caught up to that yet.

Strategy has technically sold before, once. In December 2022 it sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin, then repurchased 810 BTC two days later, a tax-loss harvesting move that banked a capital loss without reducing exposure. What makes June 29 different is that it isn't a one-off maneuver. It is permanent machinery for converting Bitcoin into cash whenever a fixed dividend needs funding.

The Bull Case Nobody's Wrong About

None of this means Strategy is in distress. The 3,588 coins sold amount to roughly 0.4% of the company's holdings, and the authorization itself has gone unused, with the company's own language stressing no obligation to sell exists. Sigel, who tracks the company closely, called it running "a hedge fund" trading its own capital stack, not a company in trouble, and said he's comfortable paying a low multiple for that structure.

A board building in optionality before it's forced to use it is closer to prudent governance than panic. The question this post cares about is narrower than bullish or bearish anyway: it's about who actually holds the decision to sell.

Where Individual HODL Diverges From Corporate HODL

A person holding Bitcoin in self-custody has no dividend clock, no board resolution, and no accounting rule forcing quarterly losses onto a public income statement. Strategy has all three. Under fair value accounting adopted in January 2025, every dollar Bitcoin drops shows up as a real loss on Strategy's books each quarter, whether or not a single coin gets sold.

That rule already showed its teeth this year. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Strategy reported an $8.32 billion loss on its digital asset holdings, a number that ran straight through the income statement regardless of whether a single coin traded hands. The market felt that loss before Strategy sold anything to address it.

An accounting rule, a board vote, and a preferred shareholder's dividend claim can all move Strategy's Bitcoin before the CEO forms an opinion on price. "HODL" as an individual ethos assumes the holder controls the decision. For a leveraged corporate treasury, that control is shared with people who were never asked whether they believe in Bitcoin. They just wanted their coupon paid.

Related on BitBrainers: Fear and Greed Says Buy. MVRV Says Not Yet. Long-Term Holders Aren't Waiting.


The Level That Actually Decides This

The scenario worth watching isn't whether Strategy sells more Bitcoin this month. It's whether BTC recovers back above that $75,476 average cost basis, because that line matters more than any headline dollar figure. Above it, this entire framework becomes a governance formality nobody remembers by next year. Below it for long enough, the $1.25 billion program stops being a backstop and starts looking like a schedule.

Sources:
Seeking Alpha: Strategy's Bitcoin sale raises fresh questions as $1.25B monetization plan remains unused
crypto.news: VanEck says Strategy's $135M BTC sale left $1.25B plan intact
CoinGecko: Strategy Bitcoin Treasuries: MSTR.US BTC Holdings Chart
Yahoo Finance: MicroStrategy Stops Just Hoarding Bitcoin, Now It Will Manage It Like Smart Money

[FLAG: insert your standard disclosure boilerplate here, not stored, so not invented]

— BitBrainers Editorial

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Bitcoin Has Rallied on "Iran Wants a Deal" Twice Since February. The First Time Was Almost the Same Words.

BitBrainers - Iran Deal Claims, A Repeating Pattern

By BitBrainers Editorial

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on July 9 that Iran "called a little while ago" and "wants to make a deal so badly." No Iranian official has confirmed that call happened.

This is not a new line. Almost the same words came out of the White House on March 23, four months ago, under almost the same circumstances.

Two of these claims already have a documented outcome. Neither one matches what the headline implied in the moment.

The Same Line, Four Months Apart

On March 23, Trump said the US had opened contact with Iran and would delay strikes on Iranian infrastructure for five days. His words that day, per Wikipedia's timeline of the negotiations: "They called, I didn't call. They want to make a deal."

Today's version: "They called a little while ago, they want to make a deal so badly." Different day, same structure, same unverified premise.

Bitcoin jumped more than 5% within minutes of the March 23 comments, touching $71,794 after sliding to a two week low near $67,371 that same morning. WTI crude fell 11%. The S&P 500 added roughly $2 trillion in value within twenty minutes.

Iran's Fars News agency disputed the framing the same day, saying the talks Washington described had not taken place.

The Kobeissi Letter flagged something else worth remembering. Roughly $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures were bought fourteen minutes before Trump's announcement went out, repricing the index before the public had the headline at all.


The One That Was Real, For Three Weeks

Not every version of this claim has been empty air. Reports of a near agreement had circulated since late May, and on June 17 the Islamabad Memorandum was formally signed, with a ceremony in Switzerland two days later. The naval blockade on Iran was lifted the next day.

Bitcoin cleared $65,000 as the agreement firmed up, trading near $64,000-66,000 through most of that week, and spot ETF inflows turned positive after weeks of outflows. This time there was paperwork behind the claim, not just a statement to reporters.

Friction came back almost immediately. By June 20-21, Trump was threatening to invade Iran over fresh closure claims on the Strait of Hormuz. Open clashes resumed by June 28, and both sides briefly recommitted to standing down.

That didn't hold either. On July 6-7, Iran struck three tankers in the strait. On July 8, Trump called the entire arrangement over and ordered strikes on more than 80 targets.

The version of this story with an actual signature attached lasted three weeks. The unconfirmed ones haven't lasted three days.

Every headline moves the price before you can check it.

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What Today's Version Is Missing

The July 9 claim follows the March 23 shape closely. Contact with Iran, no independent confirmation, and an immediate market reaction, stock futures turning green, before anyone outside the White House could check any of it.

Trump's own wording undercuts the optimistic read. In the same breath, he said he didn't know if Iran was "worthy of making a deal" or whether they would "honor" one. That's not how someone talks about an agreement they think is close.


Why The Reaction Is Always This Fast

Oil and Bitcoin are both carrying a war premium right now, extra pricing tied to the risk that the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted. Any claim of de-escalation, verified or not, mechanically unwinds part of that premium the moment it's said out loud.

That's why Bitcoin can move 3 to 5% on a single sentence from Trump before there's anything to confirm. In moments like this it isn't trading like a hedge. It's trading like a leveraged bet on whatever he says next.

The Trade Isn't The Headline

Whether Trump is telling the truth matters less than the gap between when a claim moves the market and when it can actually be checked. That gap runs minutes for the headline and days or weeks for confirmation.

The one instance with real paperwork behind it, a signed memorandum, a ceremony, a lifted blockade, bought three weeks. The unconfirmed ones haven't bought three days.

The signal worth watching isn't the next Trump quote. It's whether Iran's own officials confirm anything independently, and whether tanker traffic through Hormuz actually resumes. Both are slower than a headline. Both have been more reliable.


Still Ahead
June CPI lands July 14, the last inflation read before the July 28-29 FOMC decision. If the ceasefire cycle runs true to form, expect another version of today's claim before then, and another reversal not long after.

Sources
Bloomberg - Bitcoin Rises After Trump Says to Postpone Iran Strikes
Fortune - Bitcoin climbs as Trump grants five days for Iran negotiations
CoinDesk - Bitcoin Surges Above $71,000 as Trump Postpones Iran Strikes for Five Days
BeInCrypto (via Bitget) - Trump's Iran Signal Sparks Best-Timed Trade of 2026
Capital.com - Bitcoin price prediction 2026-2030: US-Iran Deal, ETF Outflows
CBS News - U.S.-Iran Latest: U.S. launches more strikes against Iran after Trump says ceasefire is "over"
CNN - July 8, 2026 - US, Iran threaten more attacks as strikes continue
Wikipedia - 2025-2026 Iran-United States negotiations
Wikipedia - 2026 Iran war

Disclosure: BitBrainers may hold positions in assets discussed. This is not financial advice.

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Bitcoin Follows M2 With a Lag. Nobody Agrees on How Long.

BitBrainers - Bitcoin Follows M2 With a Lag. Nobody Agrees on How Long.

By BitBrainers Editorial

Every few weeks the same chart shows up on crypto Twitter. Global M2 money supply moving one direction, Bitcoin's price plotted a few months later doing the same thing. The overlay looks clean. The conclusion writes itself: liquidity leads, Bitcoin follows, just wait for the lag to play out.

The problem starts with the lag itself. Nobody actually agrees on what it is.

What M2 Is, Briefly

M2 is a standard measure of money circulating in an economy: cash, checking accounts, savings, money market funds, and small time deposits. It's the number central banks and traders watch as a proxy for how much liquidity is sloshing through the system.

When M2 expands, the theory goes, more money is chasing the same amount of goods and assets. Scarce assets like Bitcoin should benefit as that liquidity looks for somewhere to go. The mechanism is intuitive. The timing is where it falls apart.

The Lag Keeps Changing, Which Should Bother You

Some analysts run a 70-day lag between M2 and Bitcoin's price reaction. Others use 12 weeks, or a flat 90 days. More recent research has produced 56-to-60-day windows, and separately a 102-day window from a different sample period.

If the same relationship keeps producing different answers depending on who ran the numbers and when, the lag isn't a law. It's a curve fit dressed up as a rule.


What the Correlation Actually Shows

One analysis running daily price data over a full year found Bitcoin's correlation to M2 shifted back 84 days sits around 0.78, with 0.77 for the forward-shifted version. That's a real relationship, not noise.

But the same dataset found Bitcoin's correlation to the dollar index running at negative 0.58, and the dollar index correlates with M2 at negative 0.71. Three variables leaning on each other makes it genuinely hard to isolate M2 as the driver instead of dollar weakness doing the driving, with M2 just riding along for the same macro reasons.

The same research found the dollar index moves faster and more directly against Bitcoin's price than M2 growth does. M2 tends to align with Bitcoin at slower turning points, while the dollar reacts closer to real time. The two get treated as interchangeable on social media. They aren't.

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The Rigorous Version of the Claim

A peer-reviewed study by economist Pejvak Kokabian ran a cointegration analysis and found a long-run elasticity of 2.65. That means a 1% increase in M2 associates with a 2.65% increase in Bitcoin's price over the long run, based on monthly data from January 2015 to April 2025.

The same study found an error-correction term of negative 0.12, meaning roughly 12% of any gap between Bitcoin's actual price and where the M2 relationship says it should be gets closed every month.

Worth being precise here: that study tests US M2, the Fed's M2SL series, against Bitcoin's price. It isn't the aggregated "global M2" figure most of the viral overlay charts use. The two series move together most of the time, but they aren't the same number, and swapping one for the other without saying so is how a specific finding gets stretched into a broader claim than it actually supports.

That's still a more careful version of the chart everyone reposts. It also carries a built-in admission: a 12%-per-month correction means the catch-up takes real time, and it holds on average, not on anyone's fixed calendar.


The Relationship Just Broke, in Real Time

The clearest test of any liquidity-leads-Bitcoin thesis is what happens when the two stop moving together. That test is running right now. Research firm CF Benchmarks found the rolling four-year correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 held between 0.4 and 0.6 for years. By the fourth quarter of 2025, it broke down.

Over the trailing twelve months into early 2026, global M2 grew more than 12% while Bitcoin fell roughly 12% over the same stretch. Two assets that are supposed to move together went in opposite directions at the same time.

Gold did the opposite. It climbed close to 89% since early 2025, pushing past $5,000 an ounce, tracking the liquidity backdrop the way the theory predicts. CF Benchmarks' own fair-value scoring shows Bitcoin swinging from well above its M2-implied value in January 2025 to well below it a year later, while gold's equivalent score moved the other direction entirely. Whatever was chasing the liquidity-driven bid this cycle, it went to gold, not Bitcoin.

None of this proves the relationship is dead. Every prior divergence in Bitcoin's history has eventually closed, and CF Benchmarks itself frames this one as more likely a lag than a structural break. But "more likely" is a probability, not a guarantee, and a theory that needs a multi-quarter breakdown to still count as working isn't the tight mechanical relationship the 90-day countdown crowd is selling.

Where the Simple Version Breaks

The honest read: liquidity conditions matter to Bitcoin's price over long horizons. More money chasing a fixed supply of anything eventually shows up in the price. That mechanism is sound.

But eventually is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The specific timing sold as a trading signal, wait exactly 90 days then buy, is a far shakier claim than the underlying correlation it's built on. Regimes matter too. A relationship that holds during a liquidity expansion can go quiet during a tightening cycle, or during whatever is happening to Bitcoin right now while M2 keeps climbing without it.

Currency stress elsewhere complicates it further. The yen sitting near a four-decade low against the dollar right now is its own liquidity story, capital searching for yield outside a currency that keeps losing purchasing power. That's a separate channel into the same asset, and it doesn't run on the M2 calendar at all. We covered the mechanics of that spillover in Bitcoin Touched $64K and Pulled Back. Japan's Bond Yields Just Hit a 30-Year High.

What Actually Matters Here

Watching global M2 as one input among several is a legitimate lens. Setting a calendar reminder because an X thread said 90 days is trading a coin flip dressed up as a formula, and the current divergence between M2 and Bitcoin's price is a live demonstration of exactly that.

The correlation is real. The precision being sold around it isn't. Use M2 as a background read on liquidity conditions, not a countdown clock.


Sources:
Preprints.org / Journal of Economics and Social Dynamics: Pejvak Kokabian, "The M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: A Cointegration Analysis (2015-2025)"
CF Benchmarks: The M2-Bitcoin Relationship: What the Data Actually Shows
TradersPost: M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin Correlation, Explained
CryptoSlate: How M2 Money Supply and the Dollar Really Move Bitcoin Price

Disclosure: This is analysis and opinion, not financial advice. We hold positions in Bitcoin. Do your own research.

The CLARITY Act Got Its Ethics Clause. It Expires With Trump's Term.

By BitBrainers Editorial Senate Democrats spent months refusing to move the CLARITY Act without an ethics provision. They got one. It ...

The CLARITY Act Got Its Ethics Clause. It Expires With Trump's Term.