Thursday, October 1, 2026

The Yen Test: What the Carry Trade Story Gets Wrong

USD/JPY versus US 30-year Treasury yield, daily chart July 22 to October 1 2026, showing the yen rally before the Bank of Japan hike and the divergence after September 18

USD/JPY (light blue, right axis; higher means a weaker yen) and US 30-year Treasury yield (orange, left axis), daily, July 22 to October 1, 2026. Source: TradingView (ICE, TVC). Chart: BitBrainers.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Weekly Brief: The War Reached the Ten-Year. Bitcoin Answered the Yield

BitBrainers - The War Reached the Ten-Year. Bitcoin Answered the Yield.

Bitcoin futures open interest, CoinGlass, late Aug to Sep 28, 2026. Peaked near $61.5B on Sep 22, stepped down through the pullback. Source: CoinGlass.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

The War in the Price of Everything

The war is in the price of everything

Illustration: a crude tanker on Gulf water. The strait Iran mined in February carries a fifth of the world's oil.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Monday, September 21, 2026

Weekly Brief: Bitcoin Took Out Its Gateway on a Monday Morning

BitBrainers - Bitcoin Took Out Its Gateway on a Monday Morning
BTC/USD 4H, Bitstamp, September 21, 2026. The Monday breakout bar through the $82,250 gateway.

Friday, September 18, 2026

One Candle Through $80,000

BTC/USD 4h, Bitstamp. The 14:00 candle closed at 80,683 after a high of 81,113.

BTC/USD 4h, Bitstamp. The 14:00 candle closed at 80,683 after a high of 81,113. Source: TradingView.

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Warsh Hiked 25 at 5% Yields. Bitcoin Held the Shelf.

Bitcoin 4H chart Bitstamp, BTC at $76,536, rejected twice at the 50-SMA near $77,263 after the Fed's September 2026 hike

BTCUSD 4H, Bitstamp. SMA(50) at $77,263. Last $76,536. Shelf held. Average still overhead. Chart: BitBrainers via TradingView.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The Fed Meets at 5% Yields and $75K Bitcoin

10-year Treasury yield and BTC, September 16, 2026

10-year Treasury yield at 5.00%, BTC at $75,489. FOMC statement 2:00 p.m. ET, September 16, 2026.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Sixty Votes Won't Buy the CLARITY Act Enough Time in the House

BitBrainers - the Capitol at dusk ahead of the CLARITY Act cloture vote

"US Capitol west side at dusk" by Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Monday, September 14, 2026

Weekly Brief: The Most Important Week of Bitcoin's Year, Maybe

BitBrainers - The Most Important Week of Bitcoin's Year, Maybe
The CLARITY Act ahead of its first Senate cloture vote, Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. Eastern.

Friday, September 11, 2026

Bessent Tripled the Buyback. The 30-Year Still Went to 5.36%

US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and Australia 10-year government bond yields, daily. TradingView, September 11, 2026.

Bitcoin Rejected at $84.8k as Oil Climbs on Saudi Attacks

Bitcoin 4H chart, rejection at $84,800, October 2026. Source: TradingView (Bitstamp). Chart: BitBrainers.

Bitcoin Rejected at $84.8k as Oil Climbs on Saudi Attacks